How the Oilers plan to finesse their way around the salary cap barring a trade (2024)

The Oilers’ cap crunch could leave multiple players on the outside of the opening-night roster, forcing them either to the AHL or another NHL team.

The expectation is the Oilers will enter the season with 21 players, rather than the maximum 23, unless there’s a trade made to free up some money. The current plan is to carry 12 forwards, seven defencemen and two goaltenders.

On one hand, Oilers GM Ken Holland and his staff are trying to maximize their talent behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl after reaching the Western Conference final.

“I think the management team and the whole staff have done a good job of going out and bringing guys back that are a big piece of it and going out and adding a couple of pieces here and there just to finish the lineup,” McDavid said.

“I certainly like what they’ve done. And now it’s over to the players.”

This team should be good. That’s the glass-half-full view.

On the other hand, carrying a skimmed roster presents a calculated risk that might leave the Oilers exposed.

Short-term injuries or illnesses during the season could temporarily prevent management from being able to replenish the cavalry with reinforcements from Bakersfield, Calif., since only those placed on LTIR come off the salary cap. LTIR-bound players must miss at least 10 games and 24 days, too.

If the Oilers get into a bind because of ailments or maladies, they’d have to play one game short-handed before a player making no more than $850,000 can be summoned from the minors. That’s the route the Oilers are comfortable taking, I’m told, in the event they can’t clear cap space to help them carry more than a 21-man roster.

It’s not hard to see why the AHL roster might be more important than ever this season. There could be more depth with the Bakersfield Condors than in the past.

There’s a group of players that might get there after the preseason ends — that’s if another team doesn’t nab them on the waiver wire.

Defence

Though Markus Niemelainen and Vincent Desharnais appear to be knocking on the door for NHL duty, the fact that they are exempt from waivers puts them at a disadvantage to be on the team by opening night.

Philip Broberg doesn’t need waivers either, but there’s a job on the blue line for him to lose. Plus, his entry-level contract is heavily laden with potential bonuses, so it’s imperative the Oilers have him on the opening-night roster for cap reasons since they’re going to be in LTIR.

(For what it’s worth, it’s been intriguing to watch the lefty Broberg play the right side during recent informal skates. We’ll see if that trend continues in the upcoming rookie tournament and at main camp.)

Provided Broberg makes the team, the last defence spot is expected to come down to a competition between Ryan Murray and Dmitri Samorukov.

Murray was signed on Sept. 2 for what’s been deemed as “Broberg insurance.” The 2012 No. 2 pick provides added depth, but also has the chops to move up the lineup in the event of injury or underperformance. Trying to sneak him through waivers on a league-minimum contract might not prove successful if that’s the decision the Oilers go with.

Samorukov starts his one-year, $775,000 contract next month, which pays him $25,000 more than Murray. That seems like peanuts in the grand scheme of an $82.5 million salary cap, but the Oilers are so tight that the pay difference just might matter.

It would be a shame for the Oilers to lose Samorukov after developing him for the last five years since drafting him 84th in 2017. If the William Lagesson situation is any indication, subjecting Samorukov to waivers will be the absolute last resort. Just don’t think it won’t be done if needed.

“If I’ve got to put somebody back in the American League or put somebody on waivers because we’re trying to win, I’m prepared to do that,” Holland said before the draft.

This is shaping up to be a two-horse race.

Forwards

RFA Ryan McLeod should have a new contract soon enough. It’s expected to be a one-year for no more than $975,000. (It could be a two-year pact if salary-cap space opens.)

Once McLeod signs, there would be 13 forwards potentially up for jobs if you don’t count Brad Malone but do factor in Dylan Holloway. The latter, like Broberg, really needs to be on the opening-roster roster for bonus/cap reasons because of LTIR.

To trim down to 12 forwards, the obvious player on the outs is playoff healthy scratch Devin Shore. He comes with an $850,000 salary that meets the limit for an emergency recall if the Oilers run into injuries and after they play a game short-handed.

But waiving just Shore among forwards probably won’t be enough for the Oilers to become cap compliant. It might take waiving another veteran like Derek Ryan or sending down Holloway to get under the threshold.

Trimming dollars and making sense

The Oilers will want to be as close as possible to $6.367 million over the cap when placing Mike Smith and Oscar Klefbom on LTIR to maximize their LTIR pool.

Using PuckPedia as a guide, the Oilers will be $8,501,335 over the cap if they sign McLeod to a $945,000 contract. Colleague Jonathan Willis recently explained why the Oilers getting McLeod to that number would be a big help.

That overage drops to $6,876,335 if Samorukov and Shore are waived and claimed or demoted. That still leaves $509,335 to clear to get under the league’s salary ceiling.

So, another veteran — one with a larger salary — might need to hit the waiver wire. However, $1.125 million of a player’s cap hit remains the maximum that can be buried in the minors. That’s a $375,000 difference when the league-minimum player is added to the mix as a replacement.

The Oilers might not even have room for Holloway on the opening-night roster unless a trade is made. And that would have significant implications for later in the season.

Without him cracking the initial lineup even if just quickly for cap purposes, Holloway’s $516,667 average annual bonuses won’t be added to their performance-bonus-LTIR pool. That means it would likely have to be added to his $925,000 salary to create a $1,441,667 cap hit if recalled.

A trade, if possible, sure would be helpful.

(Photo of Philip Broberg: Sergei Belski / USA Today)

Daniel Nugent-Bowman is a staff writer who covers the Edmonton Oilers for The Athletic. Daniel has written about hockey for Sportsnet, The Hockey News, Yahoo Canada Sports and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix. Follow Daniel on Twitter @DNBsports