Fantasy drafts are raging across America as the NFL’s 104th season prepares to kicks off on September 7. Now let’s make it official and launch this thing ceremonially here with our annual NFL Team Rankings -- the outlook for 2023, from the No. 1 squad overall to the gutter-dwelling 32nd.
We fared pretty well with our 2022 rankings as we correctly had 10 of the 14 playoff teams among our top 14. That included the Chiefs and Eagles, the eventual Super Bowl matchup, and also the Dolphins. I drank the Kool-Aid on all the Miami hype and asked for a refill, ranking the Fins giddy-high at No. 5 overall.
Our biggest underestimation was the Seahawks, who made the playoffs after we ranked them 31st. Our worst overestimation? The then-reigning champion Rams missed the playoffs entirely, after we ranked them No. 3. (Ouch.)
Hey, it isn’t science, folks. It’s glorified guesswork. Your favorite team could disappoint, the house usually wins, your fantasy team might be awful, and NFL general managers get fired all the time — all because evaluating talent and teams is tough.
With that caveat, here come our 2023 NFL Team Rankings (with ‘22 record, regular season and playoffs where applicable, in parenthesis):
SUPER BOWL FAVORITES
1. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-1): Emerging superstar QB Jalen Hurts accounted for 35 TDs last year and was second in MVP voting out front of a balanced attack led by a great O-line. Birds also have what should be a top-five defense.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, 3-0): Patrick Mahomes gets an awful lot from an offense lacking marquee stars aside from Travis Kelce. His greatness gives Chiefs a big chance to repeat as champs despite a nothing-special defense.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4, 2-1): Cincy dominated Buffalo in playoffs last year and gave Chiefs all they could handle. And Joe Burrow’s top three receivers are as good as any in the league.
4. MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-8, 0-1): The Fins are nationally under regarded largely because of the unmerited infatuation with Buffalo and Josh Allen. Miami ranked this high relies on a healthy season from Tua Tagovailoa, granted. Not a sure thing, but if they get that, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadle will be next to unstoppable. The Jalen Ramsey injury hurts, but Vic Fangio will show why he’s a god among defensive coordinators. Miami has top-five overall talent leaguewide. The main concern? A stacked AFC and tough schedule. Still, a big chance to end the franchise’s near 40-year Super Bowl drought.
5. San Francisco 49ers (13-4, 2-1): Frans have Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel as weapons, a very fine defense and two awful teams in their division. But Niners will only be contenders if QB Brock Purdy is all that in his first full season.
6. Buffalo Bills (13-3, 1-1): With a history of losing and last year’s playoff fizzle, Josh Allen’s team has much still to prove. Let’s see if Buffalo holds off the Fins and Jets to stay best in the AFC East before we grant a free pass to the next level.
7. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 1-1): Boys could have the No. 1 defense in NFL. If they get a rebound season from Dak Prescott this is a team that could challenge for NFC crown. They might have to to save Mike McCarthy’s job.
8. Baltimore Ravens (10-7, 0-1): I believe in Lamar Jackson, and I believer rookie Zay Flowers is the player he needed to make him better. Crows’ defense is no longer elite but still plus-good.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
9. New York Jets (7-10): Adding Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook and the glare of “Hard Knocks” has led to a ton of attention and the predictable overestimation. But with a strong defense especially in the secondary, NYJ should be playoff-good.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 1-1): Jags have a budding-superstar QB in Trevor Lawrence if the leap we saw in Year 2 was indicative of his trajectory. Bu this is a bottom-third defense that didn’t do enough to improve itself.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, 0-1): Is Justin Herbert capable of carrying a team? Is Brandon Staley one missed playoff from losing his job? You blow a 27-0 lead and lose in wild-card round to Jax and questions like this linger.
12. Detroit Lions (9-8): Motown, out of the playoffs since 2016, is an “it” team to make its move after ending last season on an 8-2 run. The defense is just OK, but another year of Jared Goff casting aside doubters could be enough.
13. Seattle Seahawks (9-8, 0-1): Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year season: The onset of a sustainable late-career renaissance, or a fluky one-off due to hit a wall? With the answer rides Seattle’s playoff hopes.
14. Cleveland Browns (7-10): Earthtones have Nick Chubb to grind yards and clock, and could have an upper-third defense. If QB Deshaun Watson looks anything like the guy they paid $230 million to have, this is a playoff team.
15. New Orleans Saints (7-10): Change of scenery could reignite the career of QB Derek Carr and be what N’Awlins has been needing as well. Defense could be top-10 solid.
16. Minnesota Vikings (13-4, 0-1): Losing Dalvin Cook hurts, but Kirk Cousins at 35 is in a contract year and playing for one last megadeal. Departure of Aaron Rodgers opens up NFC North, but Vikes’ defense is pretty bad.
17. Denver Broncos (5-12): Hopes hinge on what could be a top-10 defense and mostly on the likelihood QB Russell Wilson can’t possibly be as bad this year as he was in his first with Denver. (Can he?)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Pitt finished on 4-0 run last year and the T.J. Watt-led D held 11 opponents under 20 points. Need a rebound year from Najee Harris and for QB Kenny Pickett to see a Year 2 bounce.
ALSO-RANS
19. New York Giants (9-7-1, 1-1): Biggies are all-in on Daniel Jones and have Saquon Barkley back on a one-year deal, but liabilities on defense will make equaling last year’s record a tall ask.
20. New England Patriots (8-9): I take no delight in Bill Belichick’s post-Brady struggles. OK, maybe a little. Bill’s defense still is winning quality, but we have doubts if Mac Jones can lift this offense from mediocrity.
21. Green Bay Packers (8-9): Pack was sub-.500 with Aaron Rodgers. Now a major question mark named Jordan Love takes over, and defense is average at best. A wide-open, winnable division helps.
22. Washington Commanders (8-8-1): A very difficult division and a mystery at QB — Sam Howell has one career game in his pocket —- makes the Comms nobody’s safe bet. That defense, though. Really good.
23. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Rookie RB Bijan Robinson will be a darling of your fantasy draft. But it will take a lot from him and from raw second-year QB Desmond Ridder to overcome a bad defense. Upside: Winnable (read: weak) division.
24. Carolina Panthers (7-10): QB Bryce Young, overall No. 1 draft pick and an instant starter as a just-turned 22-year-old rookie, with a less-than-stellar surrounding cast. Could be ugly. Will definitely be interesting.
25. Chicago Bears (3-14): Chitown ended last season on a 10-game losing streak and returns a bottom-five defense. Dual-threat QB Justin Fields is a budding star without much surrounding talent to help.
26. Tennessee Titans (7-10): Still have Derrick Henry and added DeAndre Hopkins to aid the flagging career of Ryan Tannehill. If defense improved they’d have a shot in a bad division.
THE DREGS
27. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11): Josh Jacobs ended his holdout and new QB Jimmy Garoppolo inherits a major weapon in Davante Adams. If only the Vegas defense weren’t just a inch better than horrible.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, 0-1): The Bucs defense is average to not bad. But the starting QB has gone from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. We rest our case, your honor.
29. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1): Star RB Jonathan Taylor seems likely to be traded any minute now. New starting QB Anthony Richardson is unproven even by rookie standards. Too many negatives and ifs to expect much.
30. Los Angeles Rams (5-12): Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald ... and nuthin’ else. Has any team ever fallen further, faster than the 2021 Super Bowl champion Rams?
31. Houston Texans (3-13-1): No. 2 overall draft pick C.J. Stroud fronts a team early in the rebuild stage and trying to survive and move past the mess Deshaun Watson became.
32. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): QB Kyler Murray is out injured indefinitely and could miss the entire season, and the defense is league-worst-miserable. Any questions?
